As many as one million or more pilgrims are fleeing the city of Karbala after deadly clashes broke out Monday between gunmen and security forces during an annual Shi'a pilgrimage to the shrine city, with the death toll climbing as high as 50.

Sources inside the Sadrist current privately told IraqSlogger that they viewed the fighting as an act of provocation against the powerful Shi'a movement, even as the organization called publicly for calm.

Local sources in Karbala report to Slogger that the city is under full curfew since Tuesday, while American jets crisscross the skies above the shrine city amid rising tensions between rival Shi'a factions and an ongoing standoff in the center of town.

Clashes erupt

Eyewitnesses in Karbala told IraqSlogger that initial clashes were touched off Monday evening when lightly armed supporters of the Sadrist current, who had walked to Karbala from the northwestern Baghdad neighborhood of Shu'la, attempted to pass through the checkpoints installed around the city while carrying their weapons.

It is unclear from conflicting accounts which side fired first. Security forces used “heavy machine guns” against the crowds, leading to a high death toll, local sources told IraqSlogger, saying that the gunfire of the security forces killed and injured pilgrims indiscriminately.

Security reinforcements have arrived from the neighboring provinces of Babil and Najaf to support Iraqi forces in Karbala, eyewitnesses tell Slogger.

One eyewitness, from the Karbala area, told Aswat al-Iraq that the clashes broke out “when unknown gunmen attacked some of the checkpoints near the Baghdad Gate,” which is about 200 meters from the Shi'a shrine of Abbas at the center of the city, the agency reports in Arabic.

The fighting sent thousands of pilgrims fleeing to the parking areas on the outskirts of town, Aswat al-Iraq adds.

On the orders of the security forces, pilgrims are now evacuating Karbala without completing the ritual visitation known as the Sha'baniya, Aswat al-Iraq reports in Arabic. Media reports put the number of pilgrims leaving Karbala at over one million.

A standoff continued Tuesday near Karbala’s two important shrines, the Iraqi interior ministry said, as gunmen have taken up fortified positions in the ancient city center.

Eyewitnesses in Karbala told Aswat al-Iraq that three hotels have been burned in the city and that “plumes of smoke” are visible over the town. The Asad Allah, al-Anwar, and al-Rahman hotels are located near the two Shi'a shrines in the center of the city. Eyewitnesses explained that the buildings were ignited by automobiles that caught fire during the fighting clashes, including a number of vehicles belonging to the police and the Iraqi Red Crescent Society.

In the context of the curfew and ongoing hostilities, accurate casualty information is difficult to secure. CNN Arabic puts the death toll as high as 50, while other media sources give estimates in the 20s.

Sadrist suspicions

While the Sadrist movement has publicly appealed for calm, sources in the Sadrist organization have told IraqSlogger privately that they view the fighting in Karbala as a provocative strike by rival Shi'a forces against the popular movement.

It bears noting that tensions were already high during the pilgrimage as government and security forces in Karbala are controlled by rival Shi'a currents, especially the Badr organization loyal to the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), led by Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, which has a strong presence in the security forces. The Sadrist current and the SIIC have been engaged in an escalating struggle for power within Iraq’s Shi'a areas.

Other security forces involved in the clash are the guards of the Karbala shrines themselves, who work in the employ of the Shi'a clerical hierarchy loyal to Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, with whom the Sadrist current has had an uneasy and often antagonistic relationship dating back to the rule of Saddam Hussein, when Sadrists accused Sistani and others of silence and indifference about the conditions of Iraq’s Shi'a popular classes during the Ba'thist period.

“This attack is a move by Sistani, Badr, and Iran,” a source in the Karbala Sadrist office said to IraqSlogger, requesting anonymity, adding that he viewed the fighting as part of an attempt to permanently alter the balance of power between the powerful Sadrist current and other rival Shi'a forces.

The Sadrist office has ordered its followers to be on the alert, but not to engage in attacks, Slogger sources report. The AP adds that Sadrist officials have publicly appealed for calm, but the powerful Shi'a movement has not directed public accusations towards rival political forces.

The heavy security cordon around the holy city was also a source of agitation for pilgrims. Pilgrims had to pass through four rings of checkpoints around the city, many of them after traveling the 50-mile distance from Baghdad on foot in the summer heat because of the vehicle curfew imposed in the capital for the holiday.

A witness told Aswat al-Iraq that high-ranking Shi'a clerics (maraji') had issued “appeals for calm and for a cease-fire” to both the security forces and the gunmen.

Imam al-Mahdi

Each year Shi'a faithful observe the pilgrimage known as the Sha'baniya, honoring the birthday of the 12^th Shi'a Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi. Muhammad al-Mahdi was born during Sha'ban, eighth month of the lunar Islamic calendar.

The Imam al-Mahdi, as he is known, disappeared mysteriously in the ninth century. The faithful believe that he has been taken into hiding, and will return to restore justice to the earth.

It is from the figure of the Imam al-Mahdi that the Mahdi Army (Jaysh al-Imam al-Mahdi), the armed group nominally loyal to the Sadrist current, led by Muqtada al-Sadr has taken its name.

Karbala is host to two major Shi'a shrines, the tomb of the third Shi'a Imam, Husayn, son of Ali and grandson of the prophet Muhammad; and the tomb of Husayn’s half-brother Abbas. The two shrines are located near each other in the center of the old city. Karbala is traditionally a destination of Shi'a pilgrimage during Sha'baniya and other holy occasions.

Armed standoff in Karbala’s old city

The spokesman of the Iraqi Interior Ministry, Gen. Abd al-Karim Khalaf, said that the security forces of the Interior Ministry had arrived in Karbala on Tuesday, on the orders of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Aswat al-Iraq reports in Arabic.

The interior ministry spokesman said that Interior Ministry Jawad al-Bulani had sent the interior ministry forces to Karbala on the orders of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Additional forces were sent to Karbala on Tuesday to secure the city, Khalaf said, and to confront the gunmen who remain fortified inside the city.

Forces of the Iraqi defense and interior ministries have “surrounded Karbala,” he said, Aswat al-Iraq reports, “and the gunmen are holed up in an area between the two holy sites, not more than a square kilometer” in the center of the city, Aswat al-Iraq writes.

The identity of the gunmen pinned down in the city center is not known.

“The militants have violated the most holy site, and the most holy religious occasion, to implement their plans,” saying that the gunmen “smuggled weapons inside the city of Karbala days before the beginning of the al-Sha'baniya pilgrimage,” Khalaf added.

The Interior spokesman did not say more about who might be behind the violence in Karbala, saying only that investigations “are now underway to uncover the details of the event.”

Khalaf said that the pilgrims have been evacuated from the areas around the city” indicating that there is “no problem on the roads leading to Karbala or in any area surrounding it,” and confirming that the clashes are in an isolated area between the two shrines in the city center.”

A relative calm is beginning to prevail in the city, Khalaf said, after the “deployment of Iraqi security forces to all areas of Karbala to preserve security, as well as the intervention of the marja'iyat (the highest-ranking Shi'a clerics) in the city to stop the riotous acts.”

Ammar al-Sa'idi, head of the legal opinions committee in the Sadrist current said that most of the dozens of dead and wounded are Shi'a pilgrims who had come to visit the holy shrine. The majority of the victims “are still in the streets of the area between the two shrines,” he said, and they have not been evacuated because of the clashes and the deployment of snipers on the rooftops around the neighboring buildings and hotels.”

As for the reasons of the outbreak, al-Sa'idi told Aswat al-Iraq that “a number of pilgrims chanted slogans to extol the Army of the Imam al-Mahdi, and the Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, and this stirred the rancor of the forces controlling the two shrines . . . compelling them to open fire on the defenseless pilgrims.”

The Sadrist leader also claimed that “the pilgrims were not permitted to possess any weapons, because of the intense security procedures that made it difficult for any person to bring weapons past the inspection points leading to the city.”

In a seeming contradiction, he added that the clashes broke out “after members of the Mahdi Army opened fire in retaliation for the unjustified killing of unarmed pilgrims in front of their eyes.”

Members of IraqSlogger's Network of Iraqi staff contributed to this report but choose to remain anonymous for security reasons